Social Security

I will tend to avoid talking about politics on here, but this came up in my email today and I find this a great read (actually, eventually I will be talking about many of the things on this guy's site, it is all interesting to read there).

From the site:

So, how realistic is the Social Security Trustees Middle Projection assumption on what the US GDP will be 27 years from now?

There is a (0.911121914 - 0.48167789) / 0.138352754 = 3.10397886261 standard deviation chance of it-or a chance of 0.000954684857590260, (about a tenth of a percent,) which is about one chance in a thousand, that the US GDP, 27 years from now, will be as bad, or worse, than their assumption.

A very conservative assumption, indeed.

Once our data feed series and we have something up and working again, one of the first things I will be talking about is the Brownian motion discussion which is all over the place on John's site.

Posted by ESS at March 17, 2005 09:22 AM | TrackBack