Over at Travis Morien's site, he has a little blurb up on overconfidence in regards to trading the market.
Travis is a financial planner and in that little blurb he raises some excellent points - as he does in many sections of his site. He references many well known books and investing gurus.
It is a good little read to occasionally refer back to. Were I to jump up and down and wave my arms around more, trying to appear more confident and telling you how these formulas are a sure thing - maybe I'd have more readers.
But I'm instead going to keep going through the discussion of the analysis and then formal testing so that we can look and see what works and what doesn't.
I will warn you though that for the most part, you are going to see that technical indicators don't really work. There are some that do, but probably not in the way that you are thinking. We can get to this and more once the free data feed series is resolved and we can then write code to analyze the data that we have and test which technical indicators, if any, actually work.
There are many people who will jump up and down and wave their arms and say that if you are saying indicator XYZ doesn't work, then you aren't using it correctly. They very well may be right, but be careful those people aren't overconfident in nothing more than apophenia.
Posted by ESS at March 7, 2005 03:35 PM
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